By Louis Bien
NFL prop bets are a great, silly time waster and they demand your full, serious attention.
The NFL may be too big to enjoy on its own merits. More specifically, it’s unclear whether one can enjoy it on its own merits — that is, as the ultimate confluence of brain and brawn. To follow the NFL, one must wade through gossip mongers (Johnny Manziel’s 10 most OUTLANDISH moments ), hagiographers (10 reasons why Johnny Manziel is Zeus embodied), clowns (10 new nicknames for Johnny “Football”) and moralists (10 reasons why Johnny “Fooled-y’all” should be set on fire). The sideshows are near unavoidable, which is why it’s best to occupy yourself with silly shit whenever possible.
Prop bets may be your salvation from the noise. They are no-consequence, mini-debates to ponder when you’ve got nothing else to do. They’re fun, entirely ephemeral and, most importantly, turn our attention to things that actually happen on the field. Prop bets are escapist fun from our supposedly escapist sports culture (assuming you’re not the type who actually puts money down on these things) and should be revered.
So let’s indulge together. Here are some of the most interesting prop bets heading into the 2014 season, and how I (some guy who is way too terrified to ever place a real bet) handicap each race. Please disagree vehemently in the comments. (Odds via Bovada, via OddsShark).
Will Jadeveon Clowney win 2014 Defensive Rookie of the Year
Yes – 2/1
It’s almost shocking to think that oddsmakers believe it could be anyone else, but here we are. The only other player with significant odds is Khalil Mack at 4/1, which means that Bovada is essentially giving the field — which includes Justin Gilbert, Aaron Donald, Ryan Shazier, Calvin Pryor and Darqueze Dennard — 8/7 odds that it will upset one of the two premier pass rushers. Those players are excellent, but Clowney is a terrifying man in a football uniform. Do YOU want bet against him? Against THIS? And he is already doing THIS against first-team lineups?
Shut your mouth.
Pick: Clowney
Photo credit: Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports
Who will be the NFL MVP?
Peyton Manning – 7/2
…
Geno Smith – 300/1
There’s a bunch of players in between Peyton Manning and Geno Smith, of course, ranging from Aaron Rodgers (6/1) to Frank Gore (250/1). Manning and Smith are the current favorite and longest shot on the board, however, which begs the question that I just decided to ask: Which player is the better bet for the potential gain?
Put both players in an odds-less vacuum and there is no question that Manning is the safer bet. But giving 300/1 odds to Smith — that’s one dollar to win 301 — almost feels like an insult. Sure, he threw just 12 touchdowns to 21 interceptions last season. He also threw for 4,205 yards, 42 touchdowns and just six interceptions in 13 games during his final year at West Virginia. That production is coded somewhere in Smith’s arm, ready to be unlocked. Manning is old. Put your money down (metaphorically) on the youngin’.
Pick: Smith
First NFL head coach to be fired
Jason Garrett – 2/1
Dennis Allen – 4/1
Joe Philbin – 7/1
Doug Marrone – 8/1
Rex Ryan – 10/1
…
Mike Tomlin – 33/1
Reason I don’t like this prop bet: We’re trivializing people’s livelihoods and that is a nasty thing to do.
Reason I do like this prop bet: The host of weird factors one would potentially have to take into account to make an informed guess.
Does Jerry Jones like to fire people on Fridays — to give them weekend to clear their heads — or on Mondays — so they can maintain their productive in-week routine to get a jump start on the job hunt?
Do you risk taking Dennis Allen, who is more likely to be fired later in the day on Black Monday due to the time zone difference from the East Coast? Is your pick hogtied to the fortunes of young, recently pimple-faced quarterback who the owner wanted but whose talent is clearly capped, and now your coach is the undeserving scapegoat? Is your coach’s owner simply and insane person? Does Jerry Jones like to fire people on Fridays — to give them weekend to clear their heads — or on Mondays — so they can maintain their productive in-week routine to get a jump start on the job hunt?
Garrett is probably as good a bet as any. At least, we know Jones has a penchant for canning people mid-season. But Mike Tomlin is on this list for some reason, and he’s still the No. 2 most popular coach in the NFL. He is coming off an 8-8 season, but that’s hardly egregious. I don’t get why anyone would think he is about to be fired, but let’s pretend there’s some real inside knowledge here.
Pick: Tomlin
Will any team go 16-0 during the regular season?
Yes – 33/1
Will any team win the Super Bowl going 19-0
Yes – 125/1
The odds of either happening are very small, but which is the better bet given the odds? Let’s assume that a 16-0 team will be given a No. 1 seed in the playoffs, and discuss.
Since the 2002 realignment, there have been 12 postseasons. There have been 24 No. 1 seeds, nine of which have made the Super Bowl, and just three of which have actually won. That makes a 25 percent chance that a No. 1 seed will win the Lombardi Trophy in any given year, and a 12.5 percent chances that any particular one-seed will win.
That means that if Vegas is giving a team 1/34th (2.9 percent) chance of going 16-0, it should give that team 1/272nd (0.36 percent) of then going on to win the Super Bowl (1/34 * 1/8). One would figure that a 16-0 team is better than the average one-seed, but then consider that as many one-seeds (nine) have lost their first game of the playoffs. No. 1 seeds aren’t necessarily the best NFL teams. Injury/turnover luck and strength of schedule also play a massive role in a team’s regular season record. The tiny sample size that is a team’s record is our best measure of which squads are better than others, but it’s still pretty crappy. Almost as crappy as making financial decisions on those sample sizes.
Better bet: 16-0 team loses before the Super Bowl (based on entirely unsubstantial data)
Will Johnny Manziel win Rookie of the Year and the Browns make the playoffs?
Yes – 25/1
Pick: NO. GOD NO.
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